Why is Turkey so gassed up over Sweden and Finland?

This one is kind of sticky, so I’ll break it down to each of its parts to reveal what Erdogan is up to.

First, this has come to the fore over Finland and Sweden’s shock (and fear) of Russia’s unilateral war to take over Ukraine. Let’s skip all the pretenses put forth by Putin- wipe out fascism, Ukraine invited us in, somebody stole my lunchbox at recess-and recognize how genuinely startling that invasion has been to those two countries. Finland shares an 830-mile border with Russia, and if I was a Finn, I’d be running around with my hair on fire right about now. So, why aren’t they?

The answer is that this is old hat to them. Since 1918, they’ve been invaded thrice by Russia/Soviet Union. Lots of back and forth, shifting borders and so on, but they are still there. There are also natural protections, with plenty of heavily wooded forests and bogs.

In addition to that, they have a network of civilian defense shelters that is both large and robust. Located in population centers, they can withstand a 100-kiloton nuclear bomb, and can accommodate sixty-five percent of the five and half million people living there. The math checks out, as at the rest of them would be topside opening up a can on the largely-unhappy-to-be-there Russian soldiers, who are ill-fed, underequipped and would rather be anywhere else in the world. Their bunkers are also modern by our standards, as most of the elementary school basements (if they exist) we would seek shelter in wouldn’t protect us from a stiff wind. Sorry kids, just duck under your desks, you’ll be fine.

As to their fighting force, Finland’s standing army is only 22,000 strong, but with universal male conscription they have plenty of boots. All recruits serve six to twelve months, based on skill level. The grunts are in and out in six, with the higher technically skilled levels doing the twelve. So it not like a lifetime commitment, unless maybe you’re in a hot war. You can also get called back for ‘kertausharjoitus’, or refresher training, from 40-100 days until you’re 50 to 60 years old, depending on rank. While that seems like a pain in ass, is it worse than being treated like a doormat by Russia? Probably not, so their multitiered preparedness and the outcome of previous skirmishes keeps Russian invasion a dim prospect at best.

In Sweden’s case, they share no land border with Russia. Hence a direct invasion would seem improbable, especially with Finland providing a buffer zone directly between them.

The wildcard here, of course, is Putin. Leaders in the know are aware he is very ill, possibly fatally so. That makes him even more dangerous, with less to lose and a desired legacy to leave. Oddly, more than doubling Russia’s border with NATO seems the unintended consequence of his efforts. Thus, his bellicosity and reckless decisions have brought about the interest of these two states in joining the club.

This club has, as one of its key membership requirements, unanimous approval of its existing members. That current number is 30, from the heavy hitters like the U.S. and U.K. to countries, um, let’s say less heavy hitting, like North Macedonia and Montenegro. Get a map.

Enter Erdogan. Ailing in the polls, due in no small part to crippling 70% inflation, he needs something positive to bolster his sagging approval ratings. He voted against Finland and Sweden applications, ostensibly because they were soft on the Kurdish Workers’ Party (PKK), a militant (he, along with the US and the EU, say terrorist) faction of Kurds active inside Turkey. He anticipated that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine would drive them to apply for NATO memberships and knew he could use that to his advantage. That’s when he said no to their being allowed to join, calling Sweden and Finland “safe houses” for terrorists. But that’s not why.

The PKK has campaigned for a separate territory inside of Turkey for decades, often violently. While Erdogan sites this as reason enough to reject potential new NATO members who are soft on them, he has an ulterior motive. Recognizing the value of his yes vote, he has negotiated behind the scenes with the US on what he really wants. F-16 jets, which Biden has just announced on June 30th, he will sell them, pending congressional approval. He also said there was no ‘quid pro quo’. Sure, sure. That’s not obvious at all. But it doesn’t make Erdogan look bad by any measure. It makes him look wise, and the U.S appear clumsy and slow footed. Well, I have to say it. Good on Erdogan for reading the political landscape correctly, seeing the opportunity farther out than anyone else, and being the smartest NATO member in the room. I wish the U.S. had more forward-looking people in leadership roles, because right now we look purely reactionary and, dare I say it, stupid.