While Wernher von Braun was toiling away at Peenemunde developing V-2 rockets for the Nazis during WWII, it seemed he was the only one on the planet also dreaming about space travel. Sure, lots of people were working on rocket technology, but only in the framework of how far they could throw bombs. Even before the V-2 was functional, Wernher was already imagining men travelling to Mars, planning the venture and determining what that endeavor would take. When the allied forces finally defeated the Germans and ended the war, the battle for the future of space began.

The Russians and the Americans split up the smart guys, with the U.S. getting the better deal by secreting Wernher and fifty of his closest buds out of Germany and eventually getting them back to work on an army base in Texas. Wernher was not just a masterful engineer, he also understood the value of public opinion. He took time out of his busy schedule to work on a couple of films with Disney (Walt himself, not the studio or theme park).

Today, NASA is on the verge of returning to space. Monday’s scheduled launch of the Artemis I is NASA’s first manned (for mannequins) mission since the final space shuttle in July of 2011. They are ready to send a few dummies to circle the moon for a bit more than a month and return them safely to Earth. Their new Orion spacecraft sits atop the largest rocket NASA has ever built, packed with nearly a million gallons of rocket fuel, burning a swimming pools’ worth of the liquid hydrogen and liquid oxygen every dozen or so seconds. This launch has been years in the making and billions over budget. Did I mention this is a government program? But I’m not complaining. Dollar for dollar, NASA is still one of the best programs we have. Nothing strikes the imagination more deeply than seeing the Star Trek fantasy realized. I was just a kid when Neal Armstrong walked on the moon with Buzz Aldrin, and that electric moment has never left me. I still see their grainy television image when I look up at the moon.

Now, many light years later, we are about to boldly go again- this time to Mars, using the moon as a secondary launching/resupply point. Who would have thought it possible, even imaginable?

The privatization of space thus far has done a great deal for space exploration. We’ve seen Captain Kirk himself go into space (kind of) along with a host of wealthy spacenuts. And some quality astronauts as well, like Stevens College graduate Wally Funk. On balance, it’s been a positive. Something greater than even that is happening. The cost, though still incredible, is rapidly declining. Not for the deep space projects, but for LEO, or Low Earth Orbit, satellites. For example, Astra’s base price for their new rocket, Rocket 4, is just under four million for a 660-pound payload. Not chump change, but reasonable. You can’t build an F1 car for that amount! 

Deep space exploration, while exorbitantly expensive, is a necessary activity. If humanity is to continue long term, it must find another place to live. After what we have done to this planet, there is no option. We’ve broken it beyond the point of no return. Don’t worry, the Earth itself will be just fine, but as George Carlin once said, “This planet is going to shake us off like a bad cold”. Time to go.

That said, for the many that will be left behind, space belongs to the rest of us. And it’s becoming very cluttered up there. The problem is we humans are true experts at creating pollution. Even in space. According to NASA, they are tracking 27,000 items, most larger than 10 centimeters, that are in LEO. There is a massive number of 2-centimeter pieces of debris circulating in low earth orbit. Everything from random paint chips to parts of a Russian satellite that the Russians themselves blew up. What makes this garbage different- and dangerous- is speed. The formula is zero atmospheric friction + very little (vl) gravity = lookout! The average speed of space debris clocks in over 15,000 miles an hour. While NASA tracks the high-speed stuff as best it can, the job is becoming increasingly difficult. Even more challenging to see with any potential to get out of its way is debris on a polar or elliptical orbit. Defense One reports that items in LEO increased 22 percent in just the last two years. Failure to get out front of this will be more costly than not doing so. Then space will belong to no one. Just one giant dead zone full of expensive trash. Kind of like when all those luxury cars went for a swim with the ship that caught fire and sank near the Azores in March.

Now an upstart is elbowing its way into the satellite launching business. SpinLaunch is bringing new, or should I say less, technology to sending things upward. Their new big idea is to use centrifugal force to ‘throw’ small satellites into space by spinning a thin rocket shaped vehicle in a vertically oriented centrifuge. When it’s spinning fast enough, it lets go and off goes the package into space with only a little fuel to position it once there. Costs per launch are targeted at half a million per, which if that holds true (you know how that goes) would rip exploration wide open like a tear in the space-time continuum, or picture something cool like from Back to the Future. SpinLaunch claims tests verify the idea is feasible. Me, I’d take a beat before investing in it. The G forces alone are enough to bend steel, so no astronauts need apply. I wonder if Amazon could use this to deliver my packages. Think of all the vehicle/driver savings that would create.

Maybe entry into space should be expensive. From tens of millions to 500K in a single turn of technology? As of the beginning of the year, there were 4852 satellites orbiting the earth. This launch cost decrease will create an exponential increase in that number. Is it time we start thinking about cleaning up space? The European Space Agency has already started, with the planned 2025 launch of ClearSpace-1, a space vehicle designed to remove dead satellites. That public-private consortium will have no shortage of work to do.

Remember how the development of plastics improved the quality of life here on earth? It seems many of our inventions have unforeseen repercussions that future generations will have to grapple with. A massive reduction in space entry costs sounds like a good idea; my neighborhood could start its own space group and launch a satellite to improve internet connectivity, then lease out access to it! Think of the money we’ll make! Now if we could only build a small, lightweight sputnik to withstand the roughly 10,000 g’s of centrifugal launch stress, we’ll be livin’ on Big Money Street. Even Wernher would be impressed. Maybe.

I have been critical lately of the US government for being slow to act and not forward looking to potential threats, especially those that affect national security. But lately, they’ve been on the ball. The Dems have passed a bevy of new legislation, and if you don’t believe me, just ask Chuck Schumer-if you have an hour. But the new big deal shows some vision towards protecting the future of technology. Joe B just signed a $52 billion bill in support of American semiconductor production.  What makes this, to use a favorite of Big Joe’s, ‘a BFD’, is that the U.S. is woefully underdeveloped in the production of this micro gizmo that makes all things electronic run. From cars to toasters to rockets, no semiconductors, no go. Especially our military equipment and satellites. And most important of all, our cellphones! The global master of the game is Taiwan, aka ‘Free China’. For now.

The 69-year-old President Xi of China, or as Trump once famously called him “X-I”, is a dynastic dinosaur trying to define his legacy by redrawing China’s borders. China lost the island in a war with Japan in 1895, signing a treaty that ceded Formosa (precursor to Taiwan) ‘in perpetuity’. After WWII, when Japan surrendered unconditionally, Taiwan reverted to Chinese control in the Treaty of San Francisco, circa 1945. Then came the civil war, with Chiang-Kai-shek attacking northern provinces in China, eventually losing at the close of 1949, fleeing to Taiwan and importing his Republic of China (ROC) brand, serving as its president for 25 years until his death in 1975. Don’t let the Republic in the title fool you; one of his first acts after taking control in Taiwan was instituting martial law.

Since then, the country has moved towards democracy and enjoys a robust technology-based economy. Still in opposition to the Peoples Republic of China (PRC), the communists on the mainland, Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen, says the country’s future belongs to the people of Taiwan, not others. Aiding her in standing up to the Peoples Republic of China is the Taiwan Relations Act (TRA), signed with the U.S. in 1979, agreeing to maintain all relations with Taiwan sans diplomatic ones. More importantly, it agrees to arm the small island nation just 70 miles from the Chinese mainland with weapons to ‘maintain a self-sufficient defense’. What does that mean, exactly? Intentionally vague, for sure.

Since the late ‘70’s, a great deal of ambiguity exists on Taiwan’s status as an entity. The U.S. and U.N. granted diplomatic status to China, while recognizing Taiwan’s right not to be bullied. Regarding reunification, the TRA states that while Taiwan belongs to China, it’s return must be peaceful, hence the weapons clause. Some would call that statecraft, but not many.

What makes this international conflict increasing intense is a single product: semiconductors.

Taiwan produces more than half of the global supply of them at their ‘fabs’ where the semiconductor chips are fabricated. Hsinchu Science Park just south of Taipei is their equivalent to our Silicon Valley. Spread over six locations and housing over 400 tech companies, it’s massive. By far the big dog is Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited, or TSMC. They make about ninety percent of the most powerful microchips- called nodes below 10 nanometers- that’s technical talk that loosely translates to super tiny package with whopping mad computing power.

Since Nancy Pelosi’s visit last week revealed, China flips out over any foreign visitors to Taiwan for any reason. Especially democratically elected ones. In anticipation of the potential backlash of her visit, the U.S. Department of Defense rescheduled an unarmed nuclear missile test from the Vandenberg Space Force base in California toward the Marshall Islands some 4000 miles away. While China momentarily wigs out over unapproved visits to Taipei and the U.S. shrugs it’s shoulders, backstage it’s a different story.

China has long said that Taiwan belongs to them. I don’t think they cared too much about Taiwan when it was just a fishing village, they were just sort of calling dibs on the island. The game changer was two-fold. First, as a younger generation is coming into its’ own in Taiwan, and this well-educated class thumb their collective noses at China’s politics and culture, far more than their parents. And while that may miff the Chinese, what’s really piqued their interest is the semiconductor industry blossoming there. A peculiarity to this business is that the power of their product doubles in computing power every two years. This alone makes it very hard for anyone behind them to catch up. Even the Chinese, and it’s estimated they are at least a decade behind. Nearly the sole producer of those mad speed chips previously mentioned, as a country they are earning monopolistic level cash. Even with Big China making everything Jeff Bezos can sell, they must be just green with envy.

As much as China needs (and covets) Taiwan’s boss microchips, the concern is that they may just roll on in and take it. Or take some boats, you get the gist of it. Even Taiwan’s 300,000 strong military would be no match for them. One U.S. estimate has them lasting maybe two weeks. However, the complexity and interconnectedness of the global marketplace serves to protect them. The Taiwanese quietly refer to this as the “Silicon shield”. To invade them would destroy their product, by virtue of the raw materials, designs and other products that are outsourced being sanctioned. Think of the sanctions placed on Russia after their Ukrainian invasion. They can’t even get a quality cheeseburger in Moscow now. Thus, any pretense to claw back the small island just 70 miles across the Taiwan Strait would be counterproductive at best.

Besides, they have better things to do. Their long-term Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has at least 139 countries signing the Memorandum of Understanding. China’s aim is to globalize their brand through trade, infrastructure and finance. Started by President Xi in 2013, its name harks back to the glory days of the silk road from a century BCE to the fifteenth century. Named after China’s silk textiles, the routes ran 4000 miles from coastal China to the western Mediterranean to the Horn of Africa. It’s a grand concept and certainly more than the five year plans they’ve been fond of. Ambitious? Certainly, but I wouldn’t bet against X-I. Besides, what else are they going to do with all of that Amazon money?

OK, I must admit I’ve not seen a deal as strange as the Deshaun Watson debacle currently being adjudicated by Sue L. Robinson in quite a while. Since she issued her decision on Mr. Watson, and her being referred to as a retired federal judge, I was curious- aren’t you- as to what her exact credentials are in this affair and how she comes to wield such power in the case. After graduating from University of Pennsylvania law school she had a private practice for five years in Delaware. The next five she was an assistant U.S. attorney in the District of Delaware, then three more as Magistrate Judge in the same district. Finally, the big show. George H.W. Bush nominated her to a seat on the U.S. District Court (Delaware, of course) in 1991 and she served federally until retiring in 2017. Currently, as we all now know, she has been contracted to dispense punishment for rules violations in the NFL. Lots of street cred there.
Here’s how this is supposed to work. She is independent, and her decisions are final. Per the 2020 edition of the Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA), an agreement between the 32 owners of NFL teams, represented by Commissioner Roger Goodell, and the NFL Players Association (NFLPA), represented by an elected player in the NFL, she is the league’s ‘disciplinary officer’.
The NFL was founded in 1920 with the too-long name of American Professional Football Association, changed two years later to the more recognizable National Football League. For the first eleven years, the champions were one with the best record. Can you imagine any American professional sport today without a playoff? Well, the owners smartened up in 1933 and implemented a one game playoff finale among the ten teams. Best record East vs. best record West. As time went on of course, the original ten teams expanded until we have the current 32-and a much more lucrative playoff schedule. Since the early days, you needed money to own and operate an NFL franchise. Today, if you don’t have a net worth in the billions, don’t bother them with an expansion inquiry.
Conversely, the NFLPA began in 1956, when two members (from the Cleveland Browns) started a campaign to organize the players as a labor union. Abe Gibron and Dante Lavelli detailed a laundry list of grievances, such as low pay ($10,000 for current players, $9,000 for rookies), no pay for pre-season practice, or getting injured on the job. Indeed, it even included laundry, like clean uniforms. Initially ignored by the NFL, a player strike in 1968 got their attention. After eleven days, the first CBA was signed.
Seven iterations have followed, the current one signed in 2020 is set to run ten years. As one indication of the CBA’s effectiveness, in 1965 Joe Namath signed a then record deal with the New York Jets for $427,000 (roughly four million dollars today). Deshaun’s current record deal guarantees him $230 million. Thanks for legitimizing the AFC, Joe. Sorry about the money. It’s tough watching you do those commercials. Clearly the NFLPA has done its job. It doesn’t hurt that American football is also awash in money. A new ten-year television deal has each team’s television payout set at $250 million this year and going above $350 million in ten years. And that’s even before parking revenue! This makes it easier to share an ever-greater slice of an ever-expanding pie. That kind of dough can wash a lot of uniforms. But it can’t, and shouldn’t, wash this.
Judge Robinson laid down a six-game suspension on Mr. Watson, using numerous citations of the league’s own conduct policy. It turns out that Mr. Goodell thinks it should be at least a year long suspension, plus a large fine (millions), plus counselling, plus doctors signing off about him having been cured of whatever specific problem he does, does not, or may have. While it’s good to know at least someone is attuned to prevailing attitudes about sexual assault, I doubt it should be him. He endorsed the conduct policy in the CBA, and now, as Mrs. Robinson has so bluntly pointed out, he wants to mete out punishment that far exceeds the standards set forth in said policy.
He has now contracted Peter Harvey to supplant his judgement for Mrs. Robinsons’. Mr. Harvey has served previously as New Jersey attorney general, worked as a federal prosecutor and is on the NFL’s diversity advisory committee. So, some street cred there as well, but who wants to be second choice for the prom? As for me, I’m more comfortable with a woman calling the penalty for this specific offense. Diversity committee or no, sorry, Pete. As for the Commish, I don’t believe he really cares how the final decision goes, as long as he can say he did everything in his power….blah, blah, blah, you know the deal. If he doesn’t like one decision by the first person he hired, he’ll just hire another, presumably more aligned with his views, to make the ‘right’ choice. Even more vexing, how does a plaintiff get to choose the judge?
The Cleveland Browns traded for Deshawn shortly after a grand jury in Houston elected to not charge him on any of the nine bills presented on March 11th of this year. I wasn’t in the room so I can’t say what led them to that decision. It certainly wasn’t Deshaun, as he chose to plead the fifth. Which is his right under the law. That’s where this ball gets rolling. The Browns appear to have no one in upper management with the awareness of the current cultural space most of us live in. People have the odd idea that they can make up their own minds about things. I even know some people who think that O.J. actually did it. Mr. Watson may be a terrific quarterback, and he is innocent of the nine accusations by law, as he was not charged with any crimes. That, however, is not the only court in the land. There is the one of public opinion, and if you can’t hear it now, wait ‘til opening day.
The hapless Browns haven’t had a great quarterback since Brian Sipe was shredding defenses with the Kardiac Kids. Missing more than ever is Ozzie Newsome, their director of player personnel, before he rode out of town when the Browns moved to Baltimore and became the Ravens. A first-class guy, community leader, one of the smartest men in football, and possessed of great judgement. He was a great tight end for the Browns too. Mr. Newsome certainly would have helped them avoid this coming storm. Current leadership in Cleveland is almost as culturally repressed as the front office of the Washington Commanders. Hell, it took them until 2020 to scrape off the Redskins logo.
Will Mr. Watson get the chance to be successful with the Browns (picture of Super Bowl trophy here) based solely on his on-field performance? Time will tell, and the clock is ticking.
I’m sure there are plenty of Cleveland Browns season ticket holders who will have a tough time explaining to their wives why they are still season ticket holders. Good luck to those guys. Even Reggie White couldn’t defend that one.